Congressman

• July 2006: Democratic nominee Joe Sestak, having moved back to his native suburban Philadelphia congressional district after serving 30 years in the U.S. Navy, trails incumbent Congressman Curt Weldon 53% to 31%.
• Weldon had never struggled to win reelection for 20 years, in part because the district had 30,000 more Republicans than Democrats and the district had elected only one Democrat to Congress since the Civil War.
• November 2006: Joe Sestak defeats Curt Weldon 56% to 44%.

Dr. Steve kagen

Congressman

• August 2005: Kagen, a virtual unknown, is polling in third place with 6% of the vote. The front-runner, Nancy Nusbaum, is polling at 42%, buoyed by her name recognition from serving as the County Executive in the largest county in the Green Bay-based congressional district.
• September 2006: Kagen prevails in the Democratic primary with 48% of the vote, while his two opponents garner 29% and 24%.
• November 2006: Kagen topples the favored Republican 51% to 49%, in a district which has sent Republicans to Congress for 92 of the past 100 years.

Jared Polis

Congressman

• April 2007: Jared Polis' own poll shows him trailing former Colorado Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald 36% to 16%. Once biographical information is read about all the candidates, Fitz-Gerald's lead balloons to 50% to 21%.
• Fitz-Gerald benefited further from the endorsement of the Colorado Democratic Party and organized labor. Most newspapers endorsed a third candidate, Will Shafroth.
• August 2008: Polis surges from behind to win with 42% of the vote to Fitz-Gerald's 38% and Shafroth's 20%. Polis wins the general election handily and becomes the first openly gay man ever elected to an open Congressional seat.

Kasim reed

Atlanta Mayor

• September 4, 2009: One poll has Atlanta Councilwoman Mary Norwood leading Council President Lisa Borders 42% to 34% with former State Senator Reed trailing badly at 9%.
• November 3, 2009: Reed surges into second place with 36% of the vote, forcing a runoff with Norwood (who won 46%).
• December 1, 2009: Reed surprised the pundits and wins the runoff with 51% of the vote.

michael nutter

Philadelphia Mayor

• February 2007: Public polls have Congressman Chaka Fattah at 32%, businessman Tom Knox at 22%, Congressman Bob Brady at 18%, State Rep. Dwight Evans at 10% and former Councilman Michael Nutter trailing with 8%.
• Nutter receives virtually no support from other elected officials or organized labor and is outspent 3:1 by the second-place finisher.
• May 2007: Michael Nutter surges to victory in the Democratic primary with 36% of the vote, becoming the first black mayoral candidate in Philadelphia history to win a plurality of both the white vote and the black vote.

Bill Thompson

New York City Mayoral Candidate

• June 2009: Polls show Democrat Bill Thompson losing to incumbent Mayor Mike Bloomberg 54% to 32%.
• Bloomberg outspends Thompson 10:1 and receives every major newspaper endorsement. Thompson receives tepid support from President Obama and other Democratic elected officials.
• Early October 2009: Polls show Thompson still trailing by 53% to 35%.
• November 2009: Thompson stuns the New York political community by almost upsetting Bloomberg, falling short by the narrow margin of 50.7% to 46.3%.